It can snow with temps in the mid-30s, and if moderate snow falls at night, it can overtake the warmer ground for slushy stickage.īecause the freezing line appears to be isolated to far Western Maryland and Central PA, I hesitate to even mention the potential. This is crucial! I DO NOT see a freeze in our region. This will approach the I-95 corridor between Philadelphia and New York. This is a classic setup, with the higher elevations farther inland having a better chance for snow and maybe a slushy stickage. ‘IF’ we see snow in Maryland, it may be a slushy mix across the northern suburbs of Baltimore. This subtle feature can result in a shift up to 100 miles and a big result for a large population on the ground.īack To The Surface Storm GFS Model Animation 1 PM Mon to 7 PM Tue The ECMWF Model has a slightly stronger short wave, which pulls the surface Low Pressure farther north. The GFS Model actually has a weaker event aloft, allowing the Surface Low Pressure and snow to track farther south into parts of Maryland. I was focusing on the Blocking High in Eastern Canada or lack thereof… But the jet stream short wave with this storm seems to be the key. Here is the 500mb Level, roughly 18,000 Ft above the surface. To answer this, we can just look at the jet stream. Before looking a little closer, I want to help with the big question I keep getting:

This will be a slushy and moderate snowfall for central Pennsylvania to possibly metro New York. With reference to Baltimore, this snow will be on the northern edge or well north. The European ECMWF has been consistently trying to pull the storm farther NORTH and taking the snow there as well. The American GFS model has been consistently trying to bring snow near Baltimore. We began to see some agreement yesterday, but as of today, this is the comparison of the GFS and European Models. The other is the inconsistency between the two main models. With that in mind, I keep my bias in check, AND I have NOT overindulged on this snow potential for two reasons: First, I do not see a supply of needed arctic air. If you are new to my site, I am a self-aware snow lover. There has been chatter about this event, and I even broke my own protocol earlier this week to mention it 8 days ahead of time simply to keep hope alive for snow lovers.

This update presented Saturday evening is for the next weather event and an attempt for winter to show back up.

Noaa snow totals nj